Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 3.802613 4.171329 4.603876 5.162199 5.886489 6.832780 8.243658
2025-01-26 3.407142 3.880282 4.487022 5.368263 6.719632 8.981926 14.185272
2025-02-02 3.227670 3.774942 4.524733 5.724843 7.885003 12.793440 44.122689
2025-02-09 3.021032 3.587074 4.393272 5.765445 8.536107 16.925013 NaN
2025-02-16 2.871589 3.452233 4.306636 5.842290 9.314050 24.749376 NaN
2025-02-23 2.679763 3.234495 4.059481 5.569732 9.126393 28.101298 NaN
2025-03-02 2.577477 3.136072 3.984899 5.599383 9.760932 49.317059 NaN
2025-03-09 2.481205 3.037214 3.896108 5.579653 10.265192 146.653404 NaN
2025-03-16 2.372918 2.912104 3.750875 5.416680 10.218895 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.330829 2.883595 3.762888 5.585497 11.529997 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.230263 2.758942 3.599718 5.341670 11.014972 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 2.135954 2.639922 3.439408 5.087803 10.378072 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 2.064206 2.555569 3.338750 4.968499 10.348284 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 2.042846 2.548268 3.371116 5.157636 11.940410 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 2.039013 2.567710 3.452071 5.484209 15.111856 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.999408 2.527376 3.420228 5.521267 16.620098 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.966386 2.495820 3.401885 5.591334 18.851074 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.901283 2.409219 3.274327 5.342394 17.164336 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.869731 2.376373 3.246897 5.369533 18.896966 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.835515 2.337664 3.205671 5.351476 20.209480 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.789982 2.278694 3.122405 5.202087 19.343499 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.777474 2.273692 3.142647 5.356824 24.289261 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.729131 2.207484 3.040259 5.133189 21.299903 NaN NaN